Tuesday, June 25, 2013

My NBA Mock Draft: Lottery Picks

Well, the NBA Season is over. I can't say I'm happy about it. I loved this NBA Season, and that's crazy to think since I'm an Orlando Magic fan. But watching LeBron this year was special; if he is still improving, I'm down right scared. But we can wait until October to talk about how great LeBron is. Let's start talking NBA Draft! I know most people don't care much about the NBA Draft, but I've liked watching it for as long as I can remember. The first draft lottery I watched was when the Cavs landed the first pick in 2003, and we all know what happened from there. Yet again the Cavs have won the #1 Overall pick. This is the first time in a while that we don't know who the #1 pick will be. Last year, it was clear in December the Anthony Davis would be the #1 pick. This year, there isn't a clear guy that either should or will go #1. Let's start picking!

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

2012-2013 Starting Line-up:
PG - Kyrie Irving
SG - Dion Waiters
SF - Alonzo Gee
PF - Tristan Thompson
C - Tyler Zeller

The Cavs land the top pick in the draft for the second time in their three post-LeBron seasons. And people across the country are already planning for LeBron's return in 2014 (which isn't a guarantee). The Cavs have done well to some extent will their drafting the last few years. They clearly nailed it when they drafted Kyrie Irving. Although, if you look back at that 2011 NBA Draft, they could've had a lot of other high level guys (Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Iman Shumpart, Kenneth Faired). Regardless, the Cavs have done fairly well. If Anderson Varejao comes back healthy then he probably becomes a trade piece. If Kyrie stays healthy the Cavs could contend for a playoff birth.

The pick
Otto Porter SF - Georgetown

The Cavs starters not named Alonzo Gee were drafted within the last few seasons. Gee is a decently solid guy, but you won't get anywhere with him as your starting three. Otto Porter took Georgetown to places they haven't been since the 80's. He was a player of the year finalist and viewed as one of the top players in the country. I don't know if the Cavs will take him number one, but if they do trade down as some have speculated Porter will be the pick.

2. Orlando Magic

2012-2013 Starting Line-up:
PG - Jameer Nelson
SG - Mo Harkless
SF - Tobias Harris
PF - Andrew Nicholson
C - Nik Vucevic

The Magic had one of their worst seasons record wise since their inception in 1989. The team is clearly in rebuilding mode due to the "Dwight-mare Saga". Although, when you look back at the trade; the Magic actually made out fairly well. The Lakers got an unhealthy Dwight Howard and Jodie Meeks. Meeks was mostly a benchwarmer and Dwight was on-and-off all season. The Nuggets got Andre Iguodala, which was a good move for them, but he just opted to become a free agent and may leave Denver. The 76ers got Andrew Bynum who didn't play a game all season and the team ended up missing the playoffs. The Magic got an abundance of players with at lease some value. They received Harkless, Vucevic, Harrington, and Afflalo.  All but Harrington had a major impact on the team. The Magic also traded sixth man JJ Redick for Tobias Harris in a deal that really helped the Magic more than it helped the Bucks.

The Pick
Nerlens Noel C - Kentucky

The Magic have tons of options on what to do with this pick. I'm not as high on Noel as I was initially. The Magic already have Nik Vucevic as the starting center, and I think he can get much better on both ends of the floor.  I really think we need a new point guard since both point guards on the roster are 30+ (Nelson and Udrih) and aren't going to get any better. I'd love if they got CJ McCollum, Michael Carter-Williams, or even Trey Burke. I'd even like if they took one of the top shooting guards in Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo. Sadly, I think they will take Noel simply because of the massive potential he has. As a Magic fan, I'm skeptically since we already have a starting center and point guard is the weakest spot on the team.

3. Washington Professional Basketball Team (ala Joe House)

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - John Wall
SG - Bradley Beal
SF - Martell Webster
PF - Nene
C - Emeka Okafor

Last season was very up and down for Washington. They started and ended the season on losing streaks, but in between, once John Wall was healthy, they looked like a playoff team. Everyone had been waiting for John Wall to take that next step into to stardom. If they nail this draft pick and the team stays healthy they will be in the playoffs next year. Hell, the Bucks weren't even over .500 and made the playoffs. They nailed the Bradley Beal pick and they need to hope other recent picks like Jan Vesley develop into at least a solid pros. If Nene and Okafor stay healthy, are efficient, and play solid defense, they can be a solid team. Even when with their next pick, they won't be a title contender, but it would be a good start.

The Pick
Anthony Bennett PF - UNLV

I think if Otto Porter is falls to them they won't think twice about taking him, but if that doesn't happen Anthony Bennett is a good fallback. He was the best player in the country you've probably never heard of. Like Andrew Wiggins, he is from Canada. When you watch him, he just oozes natural talent and athletic ability. The only thing that worries me is that he failed to show up in the NCAA Tournament, but other NBA Stars didn't do well in the NCAA Tournament so maybe that doesn't matter.

4. Charlotte Bobcats

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Kemba Walker
SG - Gerald Henderson
SF - Michael Kidd-Gilcrist
PF - Josh McRoberts
C - Bismack Biyombo

Ah, the Bobcats. They're a weird team. They have some a nice core with Kemba Walker and MGK, Biyombo still has to improve, Henderson and McRoberts need to improve. They will be breaking in a new coach (again). They will be in the lottery next year and after that, maybe they will be able to contend.

The Pick
Ben McLemore SG - Kansas

Ben McLemore was one of the more polarizing guys in college basketball last season. He was a freshman on a basketball team filled with seniors. I think he had the most natural talent in college basketball last season. He just looked like the best player on the floor most nights. I think that he should be a better player than Bradley Beal. Both of them were compared to Ray Allen before the draft and I think McLemore better fits the bill since he's a bigger guy and once he fills out a bit and gets some good players around him. He could be one of the better shooting guards in the league. I think if another team was picking right here, Oladipo would be the pick, but the Bobcats tend to pick the wrong guy. (Even though both guys will be good, I think Oladipo will at least be better sooner)

5.  Phoenix Suns

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Goran Dragic
SG - Wesley Johnson
SF - Jared Dudley
PF - Markieff Morris
C - Luis Scola

The Suns had their most irrelevant season since before Steve Nash was there. I never saw them on national TV, and that's a good thing. They're going to be down for a while. So get used to the lottery.

The Pick
Victor Oladipo SG - Indiana

If Oladipo falls to the fifth pick, I would be very surprised, but if he does the Suns would be getting a steal. Oladipo turned from just being an athletic guard into a real basketball player. He came up big in the NCAA Tournament. He had a game winning three pointer to beat Temple in a game that they struggled to defend Khalif Wyatt (who also could get drafted because of that performance). Oladipo was clearly one of the best players in the country and it also helped that he was on one of the best teams in the country. The shocking thing is if one year ago, you said Victor Oladipo would get drafted before Cody Zeller, his Indiana teammate, that thought wouldn't have even crossed your mind. Now, it's almost a certainty.

6. New Orleans Pelicans

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Greivis Vasquez
SG - Eric Gordon
SF - Al-Farouq Aminu
PF - Anthony Davis
C - Robin Lopez

The Pelicans are in the lottery again for the third year in a row in the post-Chris Paul era. They made the obvious pick last year to take Anthony Davis at the top of the draft. They might have missed with the pick of Austin Rivers at number ten, but he can still get better. If Eric Gordon is healthy, he's a top-five shooting guard. Aminu and Lopez can be solid as role players. They will be in the lottery again next year unless every guy on their team has a giant leap forward, and even if they do they would be a six or seven seed.

The Pick
Shabazz Muhammad SF - UCLA

This would be the first shocker of the draft. Coming into the year, he was viewed by most experts to be a top pick. After an up and down year at UCLA, he could go near the top of the draft board, or he could fall even out of the lottery. But if the Pelicans made this pick I wouldn't see a problem with it. He is a better version of Al-Farouq Aminu, and if he develops a reliable jumper, then he can become a top level NBA player. Although, if that's not the pick then I wouldn't bet against them taking Alex Len.

7. Sacramento Kings

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Isaiah Thomas
SG - Tyreke Evans
SF - John Salmons
PF - Jason Thompson
C - Boogie Cousins

The Kings haven't been relevant since they had Vladi Divac. They're staying in Sacramento for the foreseeable future. They suck, and they're going to continue to suck. The only bright spot is Boogie Cousins, and he'll be gone whenever he can.

The Pick
Trey Burke PG - Michigan

Trey Burke, I'm sorry. Even though I'm an Ohio State fan; I can respect a good basketball player when I see one. If the Kings have to trade Boogie, can you find a way in on that deal? He won all the awards a player can win without winning the National Championship, and he still got to the Title game! Hopefully, the Kings can just go away so they stop ruining good basketball players.

8. Detroit Pistons

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Jose Calderon
SG - Brandon Knight
SF - Kyle Singlar
PF - Greg Monroe
C - Andre Drummond

Well, Pistons fans, I have good news and bad news. The good news is that you have a nice, young, and talented core. The Bad news is you hired yet another average coach. If the young guys keep getting better they will battle for a playoff spot, but they still need a better coach. If they get the right guy in this draft it will certainly put them on the fast track to playoff contenders.

The Pick
CJ McCollum PG - Leigh

If you don't know about this kid; study up. He is a guy coming from the small school mold similar to Damien Lillard and Steph Curry. He is a really smart guy. He scores at will. He's becoming a better passer, and he could play off the ball if you want to move Brandon Knight over. He played four years of college basketball, so he will be ready to play. I'm done buying into the "he didn't play anybody" idea. He was getting double and even sometimes triple teams every game. He beat Duke a few years ago in the NCAA Tournament. He can play, and expect him to contribute immediately.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Ricky Rubio
SG - Luke Ridnour
SF - Andrei Kirilenko
PF - Kevin Love
C - Nik Pekovic

If Kevin Love was healthy they would've been a playoff contender. Rubio wasn't healthy most of the year. Pekovic became one of the better centers in the NBA. Bottom line: if they stay healthy and pick the right guy, they should at least compete for the playoffs if not make the playoffs.

The Pick
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG - Georgia

This would be one of the better picks in Minnesota Timberwolves history if they pick this guy. He would basically be the missing piece. If they keep Pekovic, and if Derrick Williams gets better, that easily gives them seven solid guys, which all but guarantees a playoff spot. Well, as long as K-Love stays healthy.

10. Portland Trail Blazers

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Damien Lillard
SG - Wesley Matthews
SF - Nicolas Batum
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge
C - JJ Hickson

Portland was a really weird team last season. They went through a 13 game losing streak to end their season, and in-between a lot of winning and losing streaks. They either won a lot in a row, or they lost a lot in a row. They nailed their first round pick last year by taking rookie of the year, Damien Lillard. They have a top five power forward in Aldridge, and a quality swingman in Batum. Matthews in a streaky scorer. Hickson is a solid center, but you won't be telling your grandkids about him. They're bench is terrible. They have a quality starting line-up, but their bench will continue to lose them games. They will probably be a lottery team again unless Batum steps up and Lillard plays even better than last season.

The Pick
Alex Len C - Maryland

If Len falls to 10 then I think some teams made mistakes. I wouldn't be shocked if the Pelicans took Len before Portland gets the chance. Don't forget the Blazers tried to get Roy Hibbert last off-season to bolster their frontline. Len would fit that role pretty well. He is an offensive center that knows how to score efficiently on the left block and is improving on the right block. He is currently hurt and even played half last season through an injury, and didn't even know it was a major problem! That shows a lot of toughness, which should be a good sign. Oh, and he used to be a gymnast. How many centers in the NBA have been gymnasts? Probably not very many.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Jrue Holiday
SG - Nick Young
SF - Evan Turner
PF - Thad Young
C - Spencer Hawes

Last season was clearly a disappointment for the 76ers. A few years ago they made the second round. Yeah, they were aided by a Derrick Rose injury, but they still had to win the games. They took Boston to seven games that year. After that they made the trade to move Iggy and they received Jason Richardson and Andrew Bynum. Those two missed a combined 131 games. That wasn't exactly great news for the Sixers. If they get healthy and make some good moves in free agency, they could make the playoffs. If they miss the playoffs though, it won't be by very many games. They're how the Rockets were a few years ago. They're good enough to contend, but not good enough to win a title.

The Pick
Cody Zeller C/PF - Indiana

Zeller was supposed to be the best player in college basketball last season. He wasn't even the best player on his team! Oladipo had that honor, and he will probably be drafted ahead of Zeller as well. Don't sleep on Zeller though. He probably won't be an all-star, but he will be a solid NBA player. I think he can be a better version of his brother, Tyler,  He is a quicker and more agile guy, especially for a seven footer. I think he is a safer bet than some of these raw, athletic guys. You know what you're going to get from this guy. His best case scenario is as a starting power forward or a center, and he averages a double-double.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from the James Harden trade)

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Russell Westbrook
SG - Thabo Sefolosha
SF - Kevin Durant
PF - Serge Ibaka
C - Kendrick Perkins

The Thunder really need to score with this pick. They traded a top-15 player in the NBA for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, and some draft picks. Martin is solid, and the jury is still out on Lamb. They need a good pick here to show their fans that they didn't give up James Harden for nothing. The Thunder will be a playoff team next year. Durant is the second best player in the league. Westbrook will come back healthy and be a top player. They will at least make the second round of the playoffs, if not the Conference Finals.

The Pick
Kelly Olynyk PF - Gonzaga

I don't know how likely it is for the Thunder to take Olynyk, but I would really like it if they took a guy like this. I think he can play either the four or the five in the NBA depending on the line-up. Put him on the floor with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Martin. That's four guys who can score without thinking twice, and Ibaka will get you nearly a double-double every night along with a few blocks. That would be one of the best line-ups in the league. If they don't take Olynyk, I think they take Steven Adams the Center out of Pittsburgh. Oh, and they'll either amnesty Perkins or have him take a pay cut.

13. Dallas Mavericks

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Darren Collison
SG - OJ Mayo
SF - Shawn Marion
PF - Dirk Nowitzki
C -  Chris Kaman

The Mavs haven't had much to celebrate since winning the title in 2011. If they don't get a high-caliber free agent next month, they will probably be a lottery team again. If they do, they will contend for a playoff spot at the very least.

The Pick
Steven Adams C - Pittsburgh

I don't know much about Steven Adams, but I know he is one of the guys that has a lot more risk then a Cody Zeller does. He is a seven footer that averaged seven and six as a freshmen. He has a lot of developing to do, but if he develops the way he should; he can be a top center in the next five years.

14. Utah Jazz

2012-2013 Starting Line-up
PG - Mo Williams
SG - Randy Foye
SF - Gordon Hayward
PF - Paul Millsap
C - Al Jefferson

Another team that like the Rockets of a few years ago. Won't win a title and they won't be the worst team in the league. They need to a bon a fide star to be a playoff contender, until then it will be a lot of mediocre seasons.

The Pick
Shane Larkin PG - Miami

He turned from just another average player in college basketball to one of the best point guards in the NCAA. He was the only young guy on a Miami team that was one of the best in the country. Guard is the only position they don't have their player of the future at and getting Larkin would be a good start to that.

Tune into the NBA Draft on Thursday Night at 7 PM on ESPN!

Follow me on Twitter @TheLanceMorris

Thursday, June 6, 2013

NBA Finals Preview

Welcome back. It's been too damn long! As LeBron said last year, "It's about damn time." It feels like the Pacers-Heat series took months. That was probably the best series that I have watched as a 19 year old NBA basketball fan. I wasn't able to watch Michael Jordan in his hay day. I very, very vaguely remember watching Shaq and Kobe win three titles in a row. So for me, watching the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals was some of the best NBA basketball I've watched. If the Heat had made quick work of the Pacers, we would have put the 2012-2013 Heat into the discussion of best team of all-time. They still might get there, but it wouldn't be the same as if they had only lost three games in the entire playoffs. As Ryan Ruocco said on his radio show with Stephen A. this week "We needed the Heat. Even though I root against them. We needed them." That echoes how I feel. I don't like the Heat for a few reasons. 1. I like the Orlando Magic. So it's a natural rivalry against the Heat. 2. I haven't exactly been a LeBron fan since he left Cleveland in the manner that he did. 3. I didn't like the heat pre-LeBron. I didn't like them when they had Shaq, D-Wade, and company back in 2006. So not liking the Heat isn't something that is new to me like it has been to all the people that noticed the Heat after the culmination of "the Big 3".

On to the Finals. We have the Spurs going up against the Heat. One story line is that the LeBron is facing the Spurs in the finals for the second time in his career. He went up against them in the 2007 Finals as a member of the Cavs, but his team was really, really bad. Another is Tim Duncan possibly becoming the only player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to win NBA Finals MVP 14 years apart. That would be something that will never be forgotten. There's other various storylines like Tony Parker cementing the idea that he is the 3rd best player in the NBA (I think that's crazy but it's out there). Also there's Wade getting his 3rd NBA Title and (officially) claiming the title as 3rd best shooting guard in the history of the NBA.

But let's get down to business. The Heat have games one and two at home before they go down to San Antonio for games three, four, and five. Then we go back down to South Beach for game six and game seven.

Let's look at the line ups. The Spurs have a giant advantage at the point guard spot by having MVP candidate Tony Parker run their offense. The Heat have Mario Chalmers who is capable of having a big game, but is nothing compared to Tony Parker. The Spurs start Danny Green, who should at least know LeBron well after he started his career with him in Cleveland, although, he was glued to the bench. He is a fine role player who shoots 3's and plays hard defense. But Dwyane Wade, could be a mixed bag. It's nearly impossible to know how he will come out on a game to game basis. Something else that Ryan Ruocco has talked about both on his show and "Mike And Mike" was how Dwyane Wade is in a unique position that other athletes are almost never able to be in. Whenever he has a bad game, it's just due to his injury(s) limiting his effectiveness. However, if he has a good game it's because he isn't as hurt today as he was in past games. It probably helps that he is playing along side the best player in the world. Regardless, he is now completely blameless. If Dwyane Wade plays like he did in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals then he will clearly play a larger role then Danny Green will. Green probably won't play as many minutes as Manu Ginobili will at the shooting guard spot. If he plays how he should, it could be a dead even matchup. Do I even need to go over the small forward matchup? LeBron should and most likely will, destroy whoever the Spurs put in his way. They don't have a Bruce Bowen type to lock him down. Power forward will vary game to game. The Heat usually have Udonis Haslem at that spot, but Shane Battier might get more minutes in this series than he did against the Pacers because of the matchups. The Spurs have one of Skip Bayless's favorite NBA guys in Tiago Splitter at their power forward. Although, he has vastly improved from last year. For that spot, it will change every game. If Haslem is hitting his jumper from 13-16 feet like he did in game three against the Pacers, than he will have a big advantage over Splitter. At center, the Spurs have one of the top players all-time in Tim Duncan, who should always have at least a better defensive game than Chris Bosh of the Heat will. If Bosh can maybe get into double figures at some point in this series it will greatly help the Heat. Otherwise, I expect Duncan to get the better of him in that matchup.

Now on to my prediction. I feel the same way in this series as I did in the Heat and Pacers series. As a team, I feel like the Spurs are more well rounded than the Heat. But the Heat will win the NBA Finals in six games and I will tell you why. 1. They have the best player in the world in LeBron James, and the Spurs don't have a guy that can take him all by himself. That isn't good news for the Spurs. 2. Miami's role player's not named Norris Cole all have a lot of experience. Battier, Haslem, Birdman, and Mike Miller all have a lot of postseason experience. The Spurs role players are young. They have guys like Leonard, Green, Splitter, and Neil. So I like the Heat role guys over the Spurs role guys. 3. Bosh should have a much better series against the Spurs than he did against the Pacers because Duncan is at the very least a better matchup than Roy Hibbert. 4. The Heat have home court advantage. If they win the first two games at home, they should be almost set to win at least one game in San Antonio then be able to close the series at home. 5. The Heat haven't lost back-to-back games since January. I don't see that stopping now. Again, Heat in six, and LeBron wins Finals MVP.

I told you I'd give you a book recommendation. Well, I'll do one better. I'll give you two! Two books any true basketball fan should read are Eleven Rings by Phil Jackson. He talks a little about his life growing up then he talks about his playing days for the Knicks and how he hated the Celtics long before he was with the Lakers. It goes into a lot of detail on his coaching days with the Bulls and the Lakers, and he even compares Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. Another book you should read is Dream Team by Jack McCallum. He talked about how the Dream Team came to be and the journey to get the Olympics to allow NBA Players to play. Both are extremely good books and if you have any interest in basketball I suggest taking some time to read them.

Follow me on Twitter @TheLanceMorris

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