Tuesday, August 20, 2013

My Post Draft Analysis of One Of My Fantasy Leagues

Sunday night was a great night.

The second episode of the current season of Breaking Bad was on. That was awesome. After that episode, I was able to take part in one of my favorite activities as a sports fan, and it's not about actually watching the sport. For me it's right up there with filling out brackets before March Madness. That activity is a fantasy football draft.

As I touched on in my last post, I have been putting as much fantasy football information into my mind as I possibly can. Listening to both the Fantasy Focus Football podcast (put it on the board and you're in the 06010) and also listening to the Fantasy Underground podcast. Listening to both podcasts that have some differing views better allows me to formulate my own thoughts and opinions on which guys I think will be studs this year in fantasy.

There has already been one trade in the league, which had Cam Newton and Stevie Johnson being moved for Matt Ryan and Pierre Garcon. I'm going to go team by team and talk about their pros and their cons. My team will be the last we go over. We had a 10 team snake draft. I'll give you there roster and the draft grade slash evaluation their draft was given by the commissioner.

We will start with our league commissioner, Austin Nader. He had the 6th overall pick.

QB- Matt Ryan, ATL
RB- Jamaal Charles, KC
RB- Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
WR- Andre Johnson, HOU
WR- Steve Smith, CAR
TE- Kyle Rudolph, MIN
FLEX- Reggie Bush, DET
D/ST- Texans D
K- Matt Bryant, ATL

BE- DeAngelo Williams, CAR
BE- Matt Schaub, HOU
BE- Mike Williams, TB
BE- Alex Smith, KC
BE- Ravens D
BE- Pierre Garcon, WSH

Commissioner's Evaluation:
Good draft. He basically filled all his needs except his bench is a bit poor and needs another receiver but other than that nice draft. DRAFT GRADE B+ 

My Thoughts: He was a part of the Ryan & Garcon trade, and I think he had the bad end of it. Going from Cam Newton to Matt Ryan is a downgrade in fantasy football terms. Jamaal Charles is a top ten back if he stays healthy. I love the MJD pick. He got him in the 4th round (If he fell one spot, I would have drafted him). Andre Johnson is solid, but I don't like him as a #1 receiver in fantasy. Same goes for Steve Smith. Kyle Rudolph is very overrated, and like I said before unless I'm getting a top five tight end I'm waiting on drafting my tight end. Reggie Bush is a good pick, but he is a better player in a PPR league. Bench is okay. Garcon, DeAngelo, and Mike Williams are good flyers. Problem is he has two quarterbacks and a defense on the bench. That limits his depth. If one guy gets hurt he is going to suffer. The team has a lot of injury concerns.


Next is Andre's team. He had the 4th overall pick

QB- Russell Wilson, SEA
RB- Doug Martin, TB
RB- Steven Jackson, ATL
WR- AJ Green, CIN
WR- Danny Amendola, NE
TE- Jermichael Finley, GB
FLEX- Darren Sproles, NO
D/ST- Seahawks D
K- Randy Bullock, HOU

BE- Andrew Luck, IND
BE- James Jones, GB
BE- Carson Palmer, ARI
BE- Sidney Rice, SEA
BE- Cecil Shorts, JAC
BE- Mark Ingram, NO

Commissioner's Evaluation:
Decent draft. A bit iffy with Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson but fairly good plus has a nice bench. DRAFT GRADE B


My thoughts: I like the Russell Wilson pick. He was the second highest scoring fantasy quarterback once Seattle put the zone read in their offense. Doug Martin should have a nice season. In my opinion, Steven Jackson will either be a home run, or a total flop. I'm iffy on Atlanta's offensive line. Their run blocking sucks. It's really that simple. AJ Green is a top five receiver and could be as high as number one. Danny Amendola is a good pick when he's healthy, but he's rarely healthy. You already know how I feel about tight ends not in the top five, but he was taken in round thirteen so I'm okay with that. Sproles, like Reggie Bush, is a better PPR player. Seahawks D is a great defense. He has a fine bench, but he has two quarterbacks taking up bench spots. Jones, Rice, Shorts, and Ingram are good flyers. Jones becomes a starter if this was my team. This team has some spots that are hit and miss.

Next is Ben Thomas' team. He had the 3rd overall pick.

QB- Cam Newton, CAR
RB- Arian Foster, HOU
RB- Giovani Bernard, CIN
WR- Julio Jones, ATL
WR- Reggie Wayne, IND
TE- Greg Olsen, CAR
FLEX- Jordy Nelson, GB
D/ST- Patriots D
K- Matt Prater, DEN

BE- Monte Ball, DEN
BE- Phillip Rivers, SD
BE- Ben Tate, HOU
BE- Jermaine Gresham, CIN
BE- Chris Givens, STL
BE- Giants D
BE- Stevie Johnson, BUF

Commissioner's Evaluation:
Again another decent draft except Bernard who is a rookie and Jordy Nelson who isnt all that great plus the bench is a bit weak. DRAFT GRADE B- 

My thoughts: I like getting Newton as an upgrade over Matt Ryan. I'm worried about Arian Foster. I feel like he could led the NFL in rushing just as easily as he could miss a bunch of games and have no impact on fantasy football. I like Giovani Bernard, but not this season. The Bengals are going to give BenJarvis Green-Ellis have at least 60% of the carries. Julio is nice, but with the Falcons offense, Roddy White could have a big game just as easily as Julio Jones could. I think this is Reggie Wayne's last season as fantasy football relevant. Greg Olsen is eh. Jordy Nelson can be a top twenty receiver if he's healthy. The Bench is hit or miss. If Monte Ball become the lead back in Denver then he will get 20+ carries a game. Phillip Rivers needs to stop playing football. Ben Tate is a good handcuff with Arian Foster. Jermaine Gresham is a better NFL player than fantasy football player. Chris Givens is a good sleeper, and Stevie Johnson could have 1,000 yard receiving. Overall, it's a good team, but like other teams a lot of injury concerns. 

Next up is Dan Janning's team. He had the 1st overall pick. 

QB- Tom Brady, NE
RB- Adrian Peterson, MIN
RB- David Wilson, NYG
WR- Roddy White, ATL
WR- Vincent Jackson, TB
TE- Vernon Davis, SF
FLEX- Antonio Brown
D/ST- Bronco D
K- Sebastian Janikowski, OAK

BE- Joe Flacco, BAL
BE- Tavon Austin, STL
BE- DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
BE- Michael Floyd, ARI
BE- Coby Fleener, IND
BE- Michael Bush, CHI
BE-  Buccaneers D

Commissioner's Evaluation: Good draft. Only concerning pick is Antonio Brown and his bench a bit poor especially with two rookies but they are two of the best so i guess its good. DRAFT GRADE B+


My thoughts: I like the Tom Brady pick more than most. I think he is going to make whomever he is going to throw to better. He is helped a lot if Danny Amendola is healthy. I can't argue with taking Adrian Peterson number one. David Wilson could be a good pick if he can handle being the go-to-back. The Roddy White pick I already explained with the Julio Jones selection. Vincent Jackson is good, but Tampa is a running team. Vernon Davis can be good. I don't know if Colin Kaepernick will throw to him. Davis was more valuable when Alex Smith was their quarterback. I like Antonio Brown as the number one receiving option in Pittsburgh. The only valuable guy on his bench is Tavon Austin. In fantasy terms, Flacco stinks. Hopkins is probably the number two option in the passing game that isn't all that great. Michael Floyd didn't do anything last season. Fleener isn't even going to be the number one tight end for the Colts. Michael Bush is only valuable as a handcuff to Matt Forte, and you don't need a back up defense. If he has an injury he is done for. I don't see a breakout guy outside of possibly Tavon Austin. He can contend if his team stays healthy.


Next is Johnathan's team. He had the 8th overall pick.


QB- Robert Griffin III, WSH
RB- Ray Rice, BAL
RB- Steven Ridley, NE
WR- Brandon Marshall, CHI
WR- Wes Welker, DEN
TE- Tony Gonzalez, ATL
FLEX- Greg Jennings, MIN
D/ST- Rams D
K- Steven Gostkowski, NE

BE- Rashard Mendenhall, ARI
BE- Denarius Moore, OAK
BE- Antonio Gates, SD
BE- Lance Moore. NO
BE- Shonn Greene, TEN
BE- Kendall Wright, TEN
BE- Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Commissioner's Evaluation: Decent draft. Fairly good picks except RG3 will not be as good as he was last year especially with his knee and Greg Jennings wont be the same on the vikings plus the rams defense? Really? DRAFT GRADE B- 

My thoughts: If RGIII is healthy he's a top ten quarterback, but he probably won't run as much regardless of how he feels. Ray Rice can be a top five guy if the Ravens offense can move the ball. I like the upside of Steven Ridley. Marshall is a good pick since Jay Cutler only knows how to throw to Brandon Marshall. Wes Welker could be good, but we don't know how many catches he can get in Denver. This is most likely Tony Gonzalez's last NFL season. If he gets enough touchdowns that becomes a good pick. I'm very down on Greg Jennings. He's playing with a bad quarterback, and he can't stay healthy. The only guy I like on his bench is Mendenhall and that's only because he should be their starting running back. Raiders suck. So Denarius Moore is useless. Gates is past his prime and you don't need a back-up tight end. Lance Moore is a third option. Shonn Greene might get some touchdowns. Kendall Wright is only useful in deeper leagues. You don't need Tannehill and he's not that good anyway.  I don't like this team very much. 

Next up is Kevin's team. He had the 7th overall pick. 

QB- Aaron Rodgers, GB
RB- Trent Richardson, CLE
RB- Ryan Matthews, SD
WR- Demaryius Thomas, DEN
WR- Mike Wallace, MIA
TE- Rob Gronkowski, NE
FLEX- Torrey Smith, BAL
D/ST- Bears D
K- Justin Tucker, BAL

BE- Eli Manning, NYG
BE- BenJarvis Green-Ellis, CIN
BE- Cowboys D
BE- Andre Brown, NYG
BE- Brandon Myers, NYG
BE- Josh Brown, NYG
BE- Malcom Floyd, SD

Commissioner's Evaluation:  Eh draft. Ryan Mathews is just terrible and Thomas now has to compete with Welker so he will get less looks and just a poor draft. too many risky picks. sorry Kevin. Draft Grade C 

My thoughts: I like Aaron Rodgers, but you can't take a quarterback in the first round. I like Trent Richardson, he should have a good season. I really don't like Ryan Matthews. Why is he still in the NFL? He's not good. I like Demaryius Thomas. I really don't like Mike Wallace. He downgraded in every way possible. Rob Gronkowski is great if he's healthy, but he hasn't been healthy in two years. I don't like Torrey Smith that much. His bench is awful. He has a back up quarterback, back up defense,back up tight end, and back up defense. Andre Brown is the only guy on his bench that could have any fantasy impact. I don't like this team one bit. 

Next up is Ben Lowry's team. He had the 2nd overall pick. 

QB- Matt Stafford, DET
RB- Matt Forte, CHI
RB- Darren McFadden, OAK
WR- Calvin Johnson, DET
WR- Deshaun Jackson, PHI
TE- Jimmy Graham, NO
FLEX- Eddie Lacy, GB
D/ST- 49ers D
K- Blair Walsh, MIN

BE- Daryl Richardson, STL
BE- TY Hilton, IND
BE- Golden Tate, SEA
BE- Michael Vick, PHI
BE- Kenny Britt, TEN
BE- Justin Blackmon, JAC
BE- Jordan Cameron, CLE

Commissioner's Evaluation: Poor draft. Could have easily had foster but took Calvin over him. Lacey is a rookie and since when do the packers run? just not feeling his team DRAFT GRADE C- 

This team is pretty hit and miss. I like Matt Stafford this year. Matt Forte isn't going to have that great of a year. McFadden is never healthy, and when he is healthy he sucked. I like Calvin Johnson, but he was taken second overall. You just can't take a wide out in the first round. I don't like Deshaun Jackson. The Eagles are going to run the ball as much as they can. I love Jimmy Graham. I don't like Lacy very much. I like his bench. He took a lot of flyers and one or two might actually be good. He didn't need to take a back up tight end or back up quarterback. I think this team finishes in the middle of the pack. 

Next up is Charles Stone's team. He had the 9th overall pick. 

QB- Peyton Manning, DEN
RB- Alfred Morris, WSH
RB- Chris Johnson, TEN
WR- Randall Cobb, GB
WR- Emmanuel Sanders, PIT
TE- Owen Daniels, HOU
FLEX- Ryan Broyles, DET
D/ST- Falcons D
K- Phil Dawson, SF

BE- Marques Colston, NO
BE- DeMarco Murray, DAL
BE- Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
BE- Packers D
BE- Aldrick Robinson, WSH
BE- Fred Davis, WSH
BE- Brandon Pettigrew, DET 

Commissioner's Evaluation: Okay Draft. Charlie could have drafted better if his computer didn't screw up but this is what he drafted. His WR core is pretty crappy and so is his D but other than that its okay. Draft Grade C 

My thoughts: If his computer messed up, that sucks, but he should have put lined up his picks just in case something were to happen. He was smart to take Alfred Morris first. He reached on Peyton in the second round. Chris Johnson could have a sneaky good season. I like the Randall Cobb pick. I don't like the Sanders pick. You know my thoughts on non-elite tight ends. Ryan Broyles is not a starter. Colston is a solid number two receiver. Murray should be starting as well. The rest of his bench is poor. You don't need a back up quarterback, defense, and you definitely don't need two back up tight ends. Aldrick Robinson is only a  back up in a deeper league. This team could contend if he starts the right guys and stays healthy. 

Next up, we got Joe's team. He had the 10th pick overall. 

QB- Drew Brees, NO
RB- Marshawn Lynch, SEA
RB- Frank Gore, SF
WR- Victor Cruz, NYG
WR- Anquan Boldin, SF
TE- Jason Witten, DAL
FLEX- Le'Veon Bell, PIT
D/ST- Steelers D
K- Garrett Hartley

BE- Lamar Miller, MIA
BE- Miles Austin, DAL
BE- Tony Romo, DAL
BE- Vick Ballard, IND
BE- Vincent Brown, SD
BE- Martellus Bennett, CHI
BE- Brian Hartline, MIA

Commissioner's Evaluation: Great Draft. Very nice picks only questionable pick is Bell but other than that nice draft Papa Zamfino. DRAFT GRADE A 

My thoughts: I kind of like this team. Well, some aspects. Lynch is a good number one running back. Brees is a top quarterback, but he reached to get him in the second round. Gore is good, but I don't think he will get the carries to be a top back this season. I like Victor Cruz, but he might not be healthy and teams will key on him. I don't know how much value Boldin has as a fantasy player. He had a great post season. Did you look at his regular season last year? He was invisible. I like Witten. Le'Veon Bell isn't that good. I don't see him as a good NFL running back. He should have Lamar Miller starting. He has a high upside. Miles Austin is a good flyer. Ballard might get some looks. Brown sucks. You don't need a back up tight end. Hartline is a good flyer. He could be a contender. 

Next up, yours truly. I had the 5th overall pick. 

QB- Colin Kaepernick, SF
RB- CJ Spiller, BUF
RB- LeSean McCoy, PHI
WR- Dez Bryant, DAL
WR- Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
TE- Jared Cook, STL
FLEX- Dwayne Bowe, KC
D/ST- Bengals D
K- Greg Zuerlin, STL

BE- Ahmad Bradshaw, IND
BE- Hakeem Nicks, NYG
BE- Chris Ivory, NYJ
BE- Eric Decker, DEN
BE- Shane Veeren, NE
BE- Bryce Brown, PHI
BE- Josh Gordon, CLE

Commissioner's Evaluation: Kaep'n Crunch- Amazing Draft. Has all of his spots filled with good players and has a nice bench. nothing else to say. DRAFT GRADE A+ 

My thoughts on my team: Well, obviously I think my team is good. I hope Kaepernick has enough weapons to get a top ten quarterback. He can still make plays with his legs though. I love CJ Spiller. Buffalo is going to run the ball a lot because the only guy they can even attempt to throw to is Stevie Johnson. I love LeSean McCoy. Chip Kelly loves, loves, loves to run the ball. LeSean will be a top 5 running back. I think Dez Bryant will be at least a top five wide receiver. I think he could be as high as number one if Calvin Johnson has an off year. I think Larry Fitzgerald will have a great year. He actually has a quarterback that is competent. I think he has at least a solid season, and maybe even a top ten year. I think Dwayne Bowe will be good. Alex Smith will be the best quarterback he has ever played with. Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starter in Indy. Hakeem Nicks is the second option in New York. If he's healthy he can be a top twenty receiver. Chris Ivory will probably be the starter for the Jets, which gives him some value. Shane Veeren will take over the Danny Woodhead role in New England. Bryce Brown could get 10 to 12 carries a game even if LeSean McCoy is healthy. If he did happen to get hurt then Bryce Brown will step in and be the lead back. I love Josh Gordan as a flyer. He should be the top receiving option in Cleveland and Norv Turner likes to go deep. I really, really like my chances. I don't think my peers know as much as I do, and I don't think they drafted as well as I did. 


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