My Thoughts On Fantasy Football

I've taken a long enough hiatus from writing anything. Well, outside of tweets here and there.

After the NBA Finals ended and the draft happened I haven't had anything that makes me want to take some time and put my thoughts into words. I could have written about NBA Free Agency moves, but I'll wait until the season's about to start for that. I could write some about baseball, but the only part of baseball I would be able to write at length about, would be my Detroit Tigers. At this point in time I just want to watch them and see how they play as the season gets down into the September stretch.

I'll write about the NFL once the season actually kicks off. Recently, I've been locked into fantasy football. I've downed all the fantasy podcasts that my ears have allowed. I've been doing mock drafts to my hearts content. That mostly means my head is full of fantasy things I would like to say about different fantasy items.

First, a disclaimer. I was in three fantasy leagues last year. Two of them I won, and in the other I came in second. I've been playing in some kind of fantasy football league for the last three or four years. Before, I used to just pick guys that I knew about, and that wasn't exactly the best idea. Last year I was a little more educated on who to take. Now I'm as educated as one could be on fantasy football.

All my thoughts are based on being in a 10 team standard league like one you would find on ESPN.com

Let's start out with some thoughts on specific players.

1. Don't go nuts over Doug Martin after his stellar rookie season.

Yeah, Doug Martin had about as good a rookie year as a guy could have. Besides Alfred Morris, but we'll talk about him later. He had some monster games. He had a 51 and 32 point performance. If you had Doug Martin, started him, and didn't win that week. You messed up big time. Even though he had a couple down weeks once defenses keyed in on him; he was still a top fantasy running back. What worries me is that when you go back and look at the top second year players is that the first guy taken never lived up to the value of where they were picked. I feel he would still be a good fantasy running back, but I don't know if he is going to be a top five guy this coming season.


2. Don't sleep on Trent Richardson.

Yes, I am a Browns fan, but this is something that needs to be touched on. On ESPN, he is ranked #8 overall and the 8th ranked running back. He could very easily a top 5 fantasy running back. The Browns are running the Norv Turner offense, which means they will go deep and run the ball effectively. Also, when looking back on Norv Turner coached teams (as the Offensive Coordinator)  Emmitt Smith lead the league in rushing all three seasons under Turner. Plus, LaDainian Tomlinson won two rushing titles under Norv Turner. That gives great hope that Richardson will be a top fantasy running back. You know as long as he stays healthy.

3. I highly doubt Alfred Morris has a season anywhere close to last season.

Last year, Morris would have won the rushing title if not for Adrian Peterson being a super-human. He is the 9th overall running back as well as the 9th ranked running back. I am a huge Robert Griffin III fan. I hope he is as ready to play week one as he says he already is. Even if RGIII is healthy he may or may not be as willing to run as he was last year. Most of the receivers outside of Pierre Garcon aren't reliable, and Garcon is hurt a lot. Teams are going to be keying in on Alfred Morris because outside of RGIII, there isn't much else to look out for with the Redskins offense. Also, from a fantasy perspective, he can't catch very well out of the back field. Other top running backs like Ray Rice and AP can catch out of the backfield. What that boils down to is that Morris won't be on the field on 3rd downs most of the time. That takes away plays that many other running backs will still be on the field for. Whether or not that player gets any yards, he still won't have the opportunity on 3rd down that a lot of other guys do.

4. I am very, very lukewarm on Steven Jackson.

Last season the Falcons were a play or two away from making it to the Super Bowl. That was with Michael "I can't believe I was in the NFL last year" Turner as their starting running back. He some how had 10 touchdowns, but nonetheless, he was a disaster. I don't deny that Steven Jackson is a huge upgrade over Turner. The problem is the Falcons offensive line is a pass blocking line, and they aren't even that great at pass blocking. Jackson is also 30. As you probably know, running backs usually hit the wall at age 30. He can catch passes out of the backfield, but most of the time Matt Ryan is going to be throwing to Roddy White, Julio Jones, or Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons are going to be in a lot of shoot outs, which means less action for Jackson.

5.  I absolutely love Jimmy Graham.

Jimmy Graham is, in fact, the best tight end in the NFL. If Rob Gronkowski hadn't had surgery every other week for the last couple months then he might have something to say about that. He is rated as the top tight end and is rated 29th overall. Last year he was a little down because the Saints simply weren't as good as they were in 2011. Not having Sean Payton didn't exactly help their offense, and their defense was abysmal. Even though it's August, I'll make a fairly bold prediction. Graham will break Rob Gronkowski's record (yes, they traded who had it twice before Gronk beat him out for it) for most receiving yards in a single season by a tight end. That will translate to fantasy points and I think the touchdowns will in the double digits somewhere. It doesn't help defenses that he is unstoppable in the red zone.

Lets go into some draft strategy.

1. If you don't take a running back in the first round, I would bet you won't like your team as much as if you take a running back first.

Don't get me wrong. I think Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the NFL. Calvin Johnson is probably going to be the best receiver again. My point is that quarterback and wide receiver are deeper than running back. There are plenty of running backs that could be a top 10 running back, but those are the guys that are either constantly hurt, are rookies/ first year starters or are guys that are learning a new system.

2. Unless you're getting Graham, Gronkowski, Gonzalez, (maybe) Jason Witten or Vernon Davis
 wait on your tight end.

I already told you why I think Jimmy Graham is a good player for your fantasy football team, I'd think of taking him as early as the second round. If Gronkowski is healthy then he and Graham could be neck at neck. Gonzalez always seems to get a couple catches and a few touchdowns. Ditto to Jason Witten. Vernon Davis is the only one I would be cautious on. He has all the tools to be a top five tight end. With Michael Crabtree out he should become Colin Kaepernick's number one target. I am a little down on Davis because after Colin Kaepernick took over as starting quarterback he faded out and had about two catches a game. So if you aren't getting those guys wait until at least the 11th round or maybe even 12th round when getting your tight end. If you aren't getting one of the elite guys then it is impossible to predict which 6th-10th ranked tight end will be the one getting those touchdowns. All of those guys will have a game or two where they have a big game. It won't matter which one you have if you don't get an elite tight end.

3. Try not taking a quarterback in the first 3 rounds of your draft.

This is a strategy I've tried in my last 6 or so mock drafts. Usually, I take 2 running backs to start. Sometimes I'll take a receiver and a running back. I'll even take a running back and Jimmy Graham. My third pick is a receiver, running back or Jimmy Graham depending on the flow of the draft. Once the fourth round hits you wanna go with your gut. Hopefully, you have your running backs at that point because after the first three rounds the running backs that could be taken are probably the injury prone types (a Darren McFadden type). Usually Rogers, Brees, and Peyton Manning are gone after three rounds. After the third you already have your important skill guys. So depending on what kind of guy you like that will shape how the draft will go for your team. You could get Cam Newton if you want, in the 4th. RGIII in the sixth. You could even have Matt Stafford or Russell "hustle and bustle, mounds of man muscle" Wilson in the seventh.

4. Don't be afraid to get your second running back in the third round depending on the flow of your draft.

 Like I've said before running back is the deepest position in fantasy football. In the third round you can gets guys like Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, and David Wilson. You could reach for them in the second and feel good about it. If you really like a Darren McFadden or a Monte Ball, they will be available in the fourth round if that's what you want.

5. There is not a defense or a kicker that should be taken before the last two rounds of your draft.

This sounds obvious, but sometimes people pick a defense early because they think it will be a giant difference maker. People did this with the Jets a few years ago. The Steelers before them. This year that could be the trend with the Seahawks and the 49ers. Granted, they are the two of the top defenses in the NFL, but except for the game where the Seahawks had 30+ points the defense will only be able to get you so many points from week to week.

A little down the road I will get into my individual rankings for the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers (tight end, defense, and kicker are obvious).

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